Price (Bt) 4.76
Target (Bt) 5.00
Set Index 533.92
Another loss for 1Q09
1Q09 net loss of Bt67mn
AAPICO Hitech (AH) posted a 1Q09 net loss of Bt67mn (loss per share of
Bt0.30) compared to a Bt89mn net loss in 3Q08 and net profit of Bt145mn in the previous year. This loss was due to the automotive industry hit hard in 1Q09 by production cuts and temporary shutdowns. AH sales were down by 29% qoq and 36% yoy to Bt1,436mn. Gross margin was down to only 4.5% from 6.8% in the previous quarter and 9% in the previous year as capacity utilisation was markedly lower. Selling and administrative expenses were high at Bt125mn, or 9% of sales compared to 10% in previous quarter and 6% in previous year. Interest expenses were stable at Bt31mn (+2%qoq, -7%yoy).
Pace of fall to slow 2H09, recovery in 2010
With many automakers announcing 30-50% production cuts in 1H09, AH is likely to post another loss
in 2Q09. But losses should ease in 2H09 and new orders from Ford and Isuzu, auto parts for the Ford “B-Car”
model (a fuel-efficient sedan) and the launch of eco-cars should help drive a recovery in 2010. We have
further revised down our earnings projections for AH. We forecast 2009 sales to drop by 30% to Bt6,350mn
and net profit to reach only Bt4mn (EPS of Bt0.02) compared with Bt241mn in the previous year and the
previous Bt121mn forecast.
Share price near FV, downgrade to SELL
The current share price of Bt4.76 has surged 94% from the low of Bt2.46 in Dec. 2008 and is near
our fair value of Bt5/share based on 2010 PER of 7x. The current share price is trading much below book
value per share of Bt19.4, but industry weaknesses weigh on AH especially after its share-price rally. AH
is forecast to post a net loss in 1H09 and its earnings are expected to be weak and below those of its
peers under our coverage. We thus downgrade our recommendation from a HOLD to a SELL.
Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 7,755 9,295 9,077 6,350 6,985
EBITDA (Btmn) 881 1,151 898 521 652
Normalised earnings (Btmn) 382 349 368 4 161
Earnings (Btmn) 381 350 241 4 161
EPS (Bt) 1.59 1.55 1.07 0.02 0.71
PER (x) 3 3.1 4.5 284.7 6.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7 3.1 4.1 6.5 4.6
CF/share (Bt) 3.6 5 3.9 2.2 2.7
BVPS (Bt) 16.9 19 19.6 19.4 20.1
P/BV (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
DPS (Bt) 0.41 0.39 0.29 0 0.18
Dividend yield (%) 8.60% 8.20% 6.10% 0.10% 3.70%
Net debt/equity (x) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
ROA (%) 5.10% 3.90% 2.60% 0.00% 1.90%
ROE (%) 9.40% 8.40% 5.50% 0.10% 3.60%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.
By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 18, 2009
USA Cities
Austin Texas,Durham North Carolina ,Chicago Illinois ,Modesto California,Los Angeles California,Jacksonville Florida,Denver Colorado,San Francisco California ,Stockton California,Raleigh North Carolina ,Arlington Texas ,Scottsdale Arizona,Birmingham Alabama,Anchorage Alaska,Chandler Arizona,San Jose California ,St. Paul Minnesota ,Dallas Texas ,Philadelphia Pennsylvania ,Jersey City New Jersey,Indianapolis Indiana,Virginia Beach Virginia ,Chesapeake Virginia,Columbus Ohio,Oakland California,Riverside California,Kansas City Missouri ,Orlando Florida,Glendale Arizona,North Hempstead New York,Reno Nevada,Toledo Ohio,Garland Texas,Memphis Tennessee,Long Beach California ,Boston Massachusetts,Washington District of Columbia,St. Petersburg Florida ,Honolulu Hawaii,Norfolk Virginia,Anaheim California,Fresno California,San Antonio Texas,Lincoln Nebraska,Fort Wayne Indiana ,Cleveland Ohio,Houston Texas ,Babylon New York ,New York New york,Baton Rouge Louisiana ,Sacramento California,Madison Wisconsin,Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Chula Vista California ,Las Vegas Nevada ,Portland Oregon ,Tulsa Oklahoma,San Diego ,Henderson Nevada,Bakersfield California,Colorado Springs Colorado ,New Orleans Louisiana ,Islip New York ,Mesa Arizona,Fort Worth Texas ,Corpus Christi Texas ,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,St. Louis Missouri ,Rochester New York ,Newark New Jersey ,Hialeah Florida,Baltimore Maryland,Lubbock Texas,Omaha Nebraska,Tampa Florida,Laredo Texas,Tucson Arizona,Milwaukee Wisconsin,Oyster Bay New York,Minneapolis Minnesota,El Paso Texas ,Albuquerque New Mexico ,Santa Ana California ,Akron Ohio,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Plano Texas,Greensboro North Carolina ,Brookhaven New York ,Miami Florida,Aurora Colorado,Wichita Kansas ,Oklahoma City Oklahoma ,Detroit Michigan,Phoenix Arizona ,Charlotte North Carolina ,Atlanta Georgia,Hempstead New York ,Seattle Washington,Buffalo New York ,Cincinnati Ohio
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น